With 55% of the world’s population already living in urban areas and numbers expected to rise to almost 70% by 2050, urbanisation has been a key watchword of the 21st century and along with it, all the associated challenges.
Urban densification refers to the approach of compact city planning and density levels generally vary depending on the income level of every country with cities in low-income countries being as much as four times denser than those in high-income countries.
In most metropolitan areas, the majority of the residents live outside the city core where there is often less public transport and suburbanisation is therefore a major cause of high levels of car ownership and, consequently, heavy traffic congestion and air pollution.
Up until now, especially in South Africa, the models used haven’t been adjusted for decades, however, planners need to be aware of several forcible global disrupters that are likely to significantly alter the course of urbanisation in most countries.
Disrupters
Over the past decade, we have already seen the discernible changes in the workplace and in residential development which have largely been driven by millennial’s very different lifestyle needs and work ethic,
In addition are the growing security concerns and increasing traffic congestion which all make it very clear that we have to rethink traditional ideas about urbanisation, planning and development.
Challenges
As much of the urbanisation has occurred over just two or three decades, many cities are finding the accelerating pace of urbanisation overwhelming, especially in countries where unprepared or ineffectual governance and legal frameworks have impeded long-term planning to allow for continued and sustainable growth.
But even cities where are these considerations have factored in and urban growth has been managed will now have to reconsider their future development plans as the traditional models are fast becoming obsolete.
What once were emergent trends are now becoming more established as millennials settle down and start families and, like their parents before them, many are exchanging urban dwellings for family homes outside the city centre to accommodate growing families and be near good schools.
Changing traditions
However, these home buyers have very different lifestyle requirements than previous generations and the conventional suburbs surrounding most cities generally fall short of meeting their needs.
Traditionally, suburbs were developed to optimise house and plot sizes and, with most have very few amenities within walking distance, residents were very car dependent.
Millennial suburbanites, on the other hand, are very aware of their carbon footprint and want a very different type of property landscape; one which offers the same convenience, walkability and sociability of cosmopolitan urban life.
Zoning
This means that conventional zoning regulations will also be challenged as the way in which we live and work continues to change and the suburb layout that we still see in most areas will have to be rethought.
The broad concept of zoning is to create a degree of certainty and parity regarding what one can legitimately expect in a specific area, but these no longer work as well in many cities as many of the current zoning bylaws and existing suburban planning regulations are starting to impede development.
Already, the current planning in most South African cities falls far short of meeting basic needs such as accessibility and security, and this can largely be attributed to the implementation of short-term planning solutions over the years in an effort to correct the legacy of old suburban planning ideas.
Public transport
One of the main issues of car dependent suburban sprawl is that it makes traveling greater distances necessary and it also makes public transport less viable because of the lower population density in the outer-lying areas.
And with most older suburbs having few amenities, people have no choice but to drive when they need something and all the cul de sacs make many of the routes even more convoluted than necessary.
As a result, traffic is channelled to main roads which become even more congested, especially during peak hours and few people use public transport as many would have to drive to reach the routes or pick up zones anyway.
Going forward, it’s essential that, in the creation of high-density, mixed-use places, a city’s growth strategy is fully aligned with transport investment and planning.
Security
This is another key issue with traditional suburban development as it is an indefensible building typology which has led people to believe that the only way to secure their properties is with high walls.
However, high walls not only obscure criminal activity from the outside, it also makes the public spaces like streets and parks more dangerous as they cannot be seen from the surrounding homes.
This becomes even more of an issue when the community is gated with only one entrance as controlled access works both ways. Whilst it can certainly keep out the bad elements, it can also trap residents should there be a dangerous situation at the only access point.
How we work
It’s not just lifestyle needs that are changing; we also have to consider the changing nature of the workplace, and the pandemic’s recent impact on commercial real estate.
Prior to March 202, we were already seeing the influence of Millennials who adopt new technologies much more easily than their predecessors, are more comfortable doing business remotely or virtually.
But since lockdown, this has become much more commonplace amongst all generations and, as remote working has become more prevalent, we need to consider what the “new normal” workplaces will look like going forward - therein lie the savvy investment opportunities.
For instance, older commercial buildings are ideal for creating new office environments that place a premium on natural light and more open and spacious floor plans that provide workers with more privacy and personal space, rather than traditional work station clusters.
Ultimately, mixed-use areas with residential, commercial, industrial and office components along with adequate outdoor communal space will probably best contribute to urban productivity in the future by making efficient use of a city’s resources and, in turn, driving economic growth.
At the end of the day, the fundamental foundation of good urban planning is efficiency and going forward, good urban planners will not simply continue to follow the current model, but will assess many criteria, and the needs of the target market, in order to design the most sustainable planning solution.